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Reversal

Boeing data show a weakened link between hull loss accidents and fatalities.

by Linda Werfelman | February 28, 2020

Forty-one accidents, including five fatal accidents with 303 associated fatalities, were reported involving the worldwide commercial jet fleet1 in 2018, according to new data from Boeing (Table 1).2

Table 1 — Selected 2018 Airplane Accidents
Date Airline Model Type of Operation Accident Location Phase of Flight Hull Loss Injury Category Major Accident
April 17 Southwest Airlines 737-700 Scheduled passenger Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. Climb N Fatal N
The number one engine was damaged during climb. A passenger window was broken and the cabin lost pressure. There was one fatality, along with a number of minor injuries.
May 18 Aerolineas Damojh, S.A.de C.V 737-200 Scheduled passenger Havana, Cuba Takeoff Y Fatal Y
The airplane impacted the ground after takeoff in poor weather conditions. There were 112 fatalities and one survivor with severe injuries.
Sept. 27 Air Niugini 737-800 Scheduled passenger Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia Landing Y Fatal Y
The airplane landed short of the runway resulting in hull loss. There was one fatality reported.
Oct. 29 Lion Air 737-8 Scheduled passenger Jakarta, Indonesia Climb Y Fatal Y
During climb, control of the airplane was lost and it impacted the sea. There were 189 fatalities.
Nov. 9 Fly Jamaica 757-200 Scheduled passenger Georgetown,
Guyana		 Landing Y Fatal Y
The airplane turned back, landed and ran off the runway. One passenger died a week after the accident, and that fatality may be attributed to the accident.

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Those numbers compare with 40 total accidents, three fatal accidents and four on-board fatalities (and 37 external fatalities) in 2017, regarded as the safest year ever.

The data — contained in Boeing’s Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, 1959–2018, showed the reversal of the historic link between fatalities and hull losses — defined by Boeing as accidents in which an airplane is destroyed, or damaged and not repaired (Figure 1).³ For most of aviation history, hull losses have been equated with high fatality rates.

Figure 1 — Accident Summary by Injury and Damage

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes

However, Boeing said, “That trend is reversing. Despite dramatic increases in air travel and air traffic, the number of fatalities that occur with hull losses has fallen by half over the past eight years.”

Boeing said improvements in hull design and cabin equipment are at least partially responsible for the downward trend.

The data show that both flight hours and departures have increased over the past 20 years, but the number of flight hours has grown more rapidly — to 71.4 million hours flown in 2018. The year’s departures totaled 31.5 million.

Despite the increase in air traffic, the total number of airplane accidents from 2009 through 2018 is “flat or just slightly up, compared to the past 60 years,” the report said (Table 2). Data showed 373 accidents, including 51 fatal accidents with 2,447 on-board fatalities from 2009 through 2018, compared with 2,030 total accidents, 632 fatal accidents and 30,330 on-board fatalities from the time Boeing’s record keeping began, in 1959, through 2018.

Table 2 — Accident Summary by Type of Operation
Type of Operation All Accidents Fatal Accidents Onboard Fatalities (External Fatalities)* Hull Loss Accidents
1959–2018 2009–2018 1959–2018 2009–2018 1959–2018 2009–2018 1959–2018 2009–2018
Passenger 1,619 308 506 37 29,840
(804)		 2,396
(29)		 747 99
Scheduled 1,496 293 459 35 25,643 2,313 676 94
Charter 123 15 47 2 4,197 83 71 5
Cargo 288 57 82 13 282
(385)		 44
(56)		 191 33
Maintenance test, ferry, positioning, training,
and demonstration		 123 8 44 1 208
(66)		 7
(0)		 75 5
Total 2,030 373 632 51 30,330
(1,255)		 2,447
(85)		 1,013 137

* External fatalities include on-ground fatalities as well as fatalities on other aircraft involved.

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes

The accident rate for the worldwide commercial jet fleet has been cut in half over the past 18 years, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 — Accident Rates and Onboard Fatalities by Year

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes

During the 10 years from 2009 through 2018, nearly half of fatal accidents occurred on final approach and landing — more than during any other phase of flight, the report said (Figure 3). Data also showed that 14 percent of fatal accidents and 31 percent of onboard fatalities occurred during cruise.

Figure 3 — Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of Flight, 2009–2018

Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Data for the 10-year period showed that loss of control–in flight (LOC-I) was responsible for more fatal accidents (13) and more fatalities (1,181 on-board fatalities and two external fatalities)  than any other accident category (Figure 4). Controlled flight into terrain was responsible for the next-highest numbers — 10 fatal accidents, 532 onboard fatalities and 36 external fatalities.

Figure 4 — Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category, Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet, 2009–2018

CAST = U.S. Commercial Aviation Safety Team; ICAO = International Civil Aviation Organization; ARC = abnormal runway contact; CFIT = controlled flight into terrain; F-NI = fire/smoke (non-impact); LOC-I = loss of control–in flight; MAC = midair/near-midair collision; OTHR = other; RAMP = ground handling; RE = runway excursion; RI-VAP = runway incursion – vehicle, aircraft or person; SCF-NP = system/component failure or malfunction (non-powerplant); SCF-PP = system/component failure or malfunction (powerplant); UNK = unknown or undetermined; USOS = undershoot/overshoot

No accidents were noted in the following principal categories: aerodrome; abrupt maneuver; air traffic management/communications, navigation, surveillance; bird strikes; cabin safety events; evacuation; external load-related occurrences; fire/smoke (post-impact); fuel related; ground collision; icing; low-altitude operations; loss of control–ground; runway incursion–animal; security related; system/component failure or malfunction (non‑powerplant); turbulence encounter; wildlife.

Note: Principal categories are as assigned by CAST. Airplanes manufactured in the Commonwealth of Independent States or the Soviet Union are excluded because of lack of operational data. Commercial airplanes used in military service are also excluded.

Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Notes

  1. Accidents involving airplanes manufactured in the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics are excluded because of a lack of operational data, Boeing said. In addition, commercial airplanes operated in military service are generally excluded. Excluded events include fatalities and injuries from natural causes or those that are self-inflicted or inflicted by other people; injuries resulting from atmospheric turbulence, normal maneuvering and evacuation; and sabotage, hijacking, terrorism and military action.
  2. Boeing. Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, 1959–2018. September 2019.
  3. Boeing’s full definition of hull loss is “airplane totally destroyed or damaged and not repaired. Hull loss also includes, but is not limited to, events in which:
    • “The airplane is missing. An aircraft is considered to be missing when the official search has been terminated and the wreckage has not been located.
    • “The airplane is completely inaccessible.”

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