2015 Year in Review

The worldwide major accident¹ rate for Western-built commercial jets inched higher in 2015 to 0.2 accidents per million departures, up from the historic low of 0.13 per million departures the previous year. None of the six major accidents involving commercial jet transports was fatal, however (Table 1), and this represented a marked improvement over previous years. There were four major commercial jet transport accidents in 2014.

The accident tally does not include two fatal events involving large commercial jet aircraft — the Germanwings Airbus A320 that investigating authorities say was deliberately flown into the ground in the French Alps by its first officer on March 24, and the Metrojet A321 that is believed by investigators to have been destroyed by a bomb after departing Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on Oct. 31. Together, these events killed all 374 passengers and crewmembers. Because they have been considered deliberate actions, they are not classified as aviation accidents.

Table 1 — Major Accidents, Worldwide Commercial Jets, 2015

Date	Operator	Aircraft	Location	Phase	Fatalities
Runway excursion Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) Source: Ascend
Jan. 10	ASKY Airlines	B737	Accra, Ghana	Landing	0
March 4	Turkish Airlines	A330	Kathmandu, Nepal	Landing	0
March 29	Air Canada	A320	Halifax, Canada	Landing	0
April 14	Asiana Airlines	A320	Hiroshima, Japan	Landing	0
April 25	Turkish Airlines	A320	Istanbul, Turkey	Landing	0
Oct. 12	Tristar Air	A300	Afgooye, Somalia	Landing	0

Overall, commercial jets, commercial turboprops and business jets worldwide suffered 30 major accidents in 2015, down from 37 in 2014. A total of 15 of the major accidents last year were fatal accidents resulting in 231 deaths.

Eight of 2015’s overall fatal accidents involved commercial turboprop² operations, down from 15 fatal accidents in 2014 and 19 in 2013 (Table 2). One of the accidents was a midair collision involving two turboprops. In addition, the 2015 toll included three fatal accidents involving scheduled passenger revenue flights.

Table 2 — Major Accidents, Worldwide Commercial Turboprops, 2015

Date	Operator	Aircraft	Location	Phase	Fatalities
Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT)  Upset aircraft (loss of control–in flight) Runway excursion Source: Ascend
Feb. 4	TransAsia	ATR 72	Taipei, Taiwan	Takeoff	43
Feb. 11	Aeropanamericano	BE1900	Kendall, Florida, U.S.	Climb	4
March 8	SpiceJet	DHC-8	Hubli, India	Landing	0
April 13	Carson Air	Metro II	Vancouver, Canada	Climb	2
May 10	Joy Air	MA60	Fuzhou, China	Landing	0
June 2	Aeronaves TSM	Metro II	Querétaro, Mexico	Initial climb	5
July 2	Trans Maldivian Air	DHC-6	Kuredu, Maldives	Landing	0
Aug. 16	Trigana Air Service	ATR 42	Oksibil, Indonesia	Approach	54
Aug. 20	Dubnica Air	L-410	Vršatec, Slovakia	En route	3
Aug. 20	Dubnica Air	L-410	Vršatec, Slovakia	En route	4
Sept. 6	Rampart Aviation	DHC-6	Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.	Takeoff	0
Oct. 2	Aviastar Mandiri	DHC-6	Sulawesi, Indonesia	En route	10
Nov. 4	Allied Services	AN-12	Juba, South Sudan	Takeoff	37
Nov. 10	Westwind Aviation	HS 780	Malakal, South Sudan	Takeoff	0
Dec. 4	SpiceJet	DHC-8	Jabalpur, India	Landing	0

Four of the major accidents in 2015 were classified as controlled flight into terrain (CFIT). Two of these involved commercial jet transport aircraft that undershot the runway, and two involved commercial turboprop aircraft — one during the en route phase of flight and another during initial descent for landing.

Business jets were involved in 10 major accidents in 2015, five of which were classified as loss of control–in flight (LOC-I) accidents (Table 3). Hypoxia is believed to have been a factor in one of these accidents. Two of the 10 accidents were classified as runway excursions, and three others were unclassified. A midair collision is believed to have occurred in one of these unclassified accidents, based on preliminary information from inspection of another aircraft.

Table 3 — Major Accidents, Worldwide Business Jets, 2015

Date	Operator	Aircraft	Location	Phase	Fatalities
Upset aircraft (loss of control–in flight) Runway excursion Source: Ascend
Jan. 17	Challenger Aero	Global 5000	Tacloban, Philippines	Takeoff	0
July 31	Salem Aviation	Phenom	Blackbushe, U.K.	Approach	4
Aug. 16	BAE Systems	Sabreliner	San Diego, U.S.	Approach	4
Sept. 5	Senegal Air	HS 125	Diourbal, Senegal	En route	7
Oct. 19	Top Air SA	Learjet 35	San Fernando, Argentina	Takeoff	0
Oct. 22	Grupo Constructor Plata	Learjet 31	Apaseo el Alto, Mexico	En route	4
Nov. 10	ExecuFlight	HS 125	Akron, Ohio, U.S.	Approach	9
Nov. 10	Banco Badesco	Citation 650	Guarda-Mor, Brazil	En route	4
Dec. 7	Dixco Transport	Eclipse 500	Swellendam, South Africa	En route	1
Dec. 23	Aerolíneas Ejecutivas	BE400	Telluride, Colorado, U.S.	Landing	0

The six fatality-free major accidents in 2015 all involved Western-built commercial jets, and all occurred during the landing phase of flight. For the third year in a row, there were no Eastern-built commercial jet major accidents.

Figure 1 shows the number of all commercial jet major accidents by year since 2002, including the subsets of accidents that involved Eastern-built aircraft.

Figure 2 shows the commercial jet accident rate in accidents per million departures and the rate’s five-year running average, which indicates a continuing declining trend. The accident rate is for Western-built jets only because, even though we know the number of major accidents that involved Eastern-built jets, we do not have reliable exposure data (hours flown or departures) to calculate rates.

Four of the 10 major accidents involving business jets during 2015 occurred during the approach and landing phases of flight. These accidents represent a decrease of three from 2014. Business jets have averaged 10.4 major accidents per year since 2001 (Figure 3).

Calculating an accident rate for business jets is difficult because of the lack of preferred exposure data (departures). However, an alternative rate commonly used can be calculated based on the number of business jets in the fleet, and that works out to an annual rate of 0.52 major accidents per 1,000 aircraft for 2015 (Figure 4). The five-year rolling average rate for 2011–2015 was 0.50 per 1,000 aircraft, compared with 0.51 per 1,000 aircraft for the 2010–2014 period.

There were 14 Eastern- and Western-built commercial turboprop accidents involving a total of 15 airplanes in 2015. Of these, two were classified as CFIT — a Trigana Air Service ATR42 crashed on approach to Oksibil, Indonesia, resulting in 54 fatalities, and an Aviastar Mandiri Twin Otter crashed while in cruise flight over Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in 10 fatalities.

Half of the major accidents involving commercial turboprops were classified as LOC-I accidents, and one as a runway excursion; four were unclassified. One of the unclassified accidents, as noted, was a midair collision above Vršatec, Slovakia, involving two Let L-410s operated by the same company. The aircraft were carrying parachutists, and although a number of those on board survived, there were seven fatalities, according to preliminary reports.

Commercial turboprops averaged 24.6 major accidents per year from 2002–2015 (Figure 5). This represents a decline over the previously reported 26.1 accidents per year for the 14-year period from 2001–2014. The five-year rolling average has decreased to 19.3 major accidents per year for 2011–2015, compared with the previously reported average of 20.4 accidents per year from 2010–2014.

Although there has been a reduction in the number of accidents recorded for commercial turboprops during 2015, and the sample size is relatively small, LOC-I stands out as the dominant factor worthy of further attention.

For business jets, major accident rates remain relatively low and appear to be trending toward a plateau. However, as with turboprops, LOC-I is the dominant factor in most accidents. Flight Safety Foundation’s Global Safety Information Project (ASW, 12/15-1/16) was established to help identify types of safety data collected within the industry and to find examples of how such information has led to improvements that can be shared to benefit the industry as a whole. The project has revealed opportunities for airlines and other aircraft operators to take advantage of the information already contained within their safety data collection systems to identify further safety enhancements. A number of airlines have already identified such opportunities to enhance the risk resilience of their organizations.

The worldwide commercial airplane fleet at the end of 2015 was about the same size as reported a year earlier and made up of the following:

• Western-built commercial jets comprised of 22,669 (in service) and 1,712 (parked), totalling 24,381;
• Eastern-built commercial jets comprised of 464 (in service) and 340 (parked), totalling 804;
• Western-built commercial turboprops comprised of 4,118 (in service) and 557 (parked), totalling 4,675;
• Eastern-built commercial turboprops comprised of 694 (in service) and 343 (parked), totalling 1,037; and,
• Business jets comprised of 18,922 (in service) and 338 (parked), totalling 19,260. All business jets were Western-built.

During 2015, 3.7 billion passengers were carried on 32 million flights in Western-built jets.

The author is Flight Safety Foundation’s vice president, global programs.

Notes

1. Flight Safety Foundation introduced the term major accident in 2006 to describe an accident in which any of the following conditions are met:
   • The aircraft is destroyed, meaning that it is not repairable, or if it is repairable, the Ascend Damage Index (ADI) is over 50 percent. The ADI is calculated by dividing the cost of repairs by the cost of the aircraft when it was new.
   • There are multiple fatalities to aircraft occupants.
   • There is one fatality to an aircraft occupant and the aircraft is substantially damaged.
2. This includes aircraft that have a maximum takeoff weight of at least 12,500 lb (5,670 kg) or that have more than 14 seats.

Featured image: © 玄史生 | Wikimedia CC-BY-SA 3.0